Assessment of the impact of a personalised nutrition intervention in impaired glucose regulation over 26 weeks: a randomised controlled trial.

Dietary interventions can reduce progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. In this study we aimed to determine the impact of a DNA-personalised nutrition intervention in people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia over 26 weeks. ASPIRE-DNA was a pilot study. Participants were randomised into three arms to receive either (i) Control arm: standard care (NICE guidelines) (n = 51), (ii) Intervention arm: DNA-personalised dietary advice (n = 50), or (iii) Exploratory arm: DNA-personalised dietary advice via a self-guided app and wearable device (n = 46). The primary outcome was the difference in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between the Control and Intervention arms after 6 weeks. 180 people were recruited, of whom 148 people were randomised, mean age of 59 years (SD = 11), 69% of whom were female. There was no significant difference in the FPG change between the Control and Intervention arms at 6 weeks (- 0.13 mmol/L (95% CI [- 0.37, 0.11]), p = 0.29), however, we found that a DNA-personalised dietary intervention led to a significant reduction of FPG at 26 weeks in the Intervention arm when compared to standard care (- 0.019 (SD = 0.008), p = 0.01), as did the Exploratory arm (- 0.021 (SD = 0.008), p = 0.006). HbA1c at 26 weeks was significantly reduced in the Intervention arm when compared to standard care (- 0.038 (SD = 0.018), p = 0.04). There was some evidence suggesting prevention of progression to T2DM across the groups that received a DNA-based intervention (p = 0.06). Personalisation of dietary advice based on DNA did not result in glucose changes within the first 6 weeks but was associated with significant reduction of FPG and HbA1c at 26 weeks when compared to standard care. The DNA-based diet was effective regardless of intervention type, though results should be interpreted with caution due to the low sample size. These findings suggest that DNA-based dietary guidance is an effective intervention compared to standard care, but there is still a minimum timeframe of adherence to the intervention before changes in clinical outcomes become apparent.Trial Registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov.uk Ref: NCT03702465.

Mortality from leading cancers in districts of England from 2002 to 2019: a population-based, spatiotemporal study.

BACKGROUND: Cancers are the leading cause of death in England. We aimed to estimate trends in mortality from leading cancers from 2002 to 2019 for the 314 districts in England. METHODS: We did a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of vital registration data from the UK Office for National Statistics using data on all deaths from the ten leading cancers in England from 2002 to 2019. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of age-specific and cause-specific death rates. We used life table methods to calculate the primary outcome, the unconditional probability of dying between birth and age 80 years by sex, cancer cause of death, local district, and year. We reported Spearman rank correlations between the probability of dying from a cancer and district-level poverty in 2019. FINDINGS: In 2019, the probability of dying from a cancer before age 80 years ranged from 0·10 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·10-0·11) to 0·17 (0·16-0·18) for women and from 0·12 (0·12-0·13) to 0·22 (0·21-0·23) for men. Variation in the probability of dying was largest for lung cancer among women, being 3·7 times (95% CrI 3·2-4·4) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the district with the lowest probability; and for stomach cancer for men, being 3·2 times (2·6-4·1) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the one with the lowest probability. The variation in the probability of dying was smallest across districts for lymphoma and multiple myeloma (95% CrI 1·2 times [1·1-1·4] higher in the district with the highest probability than the lowest probability for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·4] for men), and leukaemia (1·1 times [1·0-1·4] for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·5] for men). The Spearman rank correlation between probability of dying from a cancer and district poverty was 0·74 (95% CrI 0·72-0·76) for women and 0·79 (0·78-0·81) for men. From 2002 to 2019, the overall probability of dying from a cancer declined in all districts: the reductions ranged from 6·6% (95% CrI 0·3-13·1) to 30·1% (25·6-34·5) for women and from 12·8% (7·1-18·8) to 36·7% (32·2-41·2) for men. However, there were increases in mortality for liver cancer among men, lung cancer and corpus uteri cancer among women, and pancreatic cancer in both sexes in some or all districts with posterior probability greater than 0·80. INTERPRETATION: Cancers with modifiable risk factors and potential for screening for precancerous lesions had heterogeneous trends and the greatest geographical inequality. To reduce these inequalities, factors affecting both incidence and survival need to be addressed at the local level. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research.

The economic burden of stomas in the UK: a retrospective observational study of health records and hospital encounters.

BACKGROUND: Stomas divert waste from the small intestine (ileostomy), large intestine (colostomy) or ureters (urostomy), and complications are common. AIMS: This study evaluated healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) and costs of stomas from a UK perspective. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of adults with new stomas (New Stoma Group) or new/existing stomas and >6 months of follow-up (Established Stoma Group) using health records linked with hospital encounters (January 2009-December 2018). Age- and sex-matched controls were identified for each stoma case (1:50). FINDINGS: Both the New (n=8533) and Established (n=9397) stoma groups had significantly higher HCRU (all P<0.0001) and associated costs (all P<0.01), driven by inpatient admissions. New Stoma Group: colostomy versus controls, £3227 versus £99 per person; ileostomy, £2576 versus £78 per person; and urostomy, £2850 versus £110 per person (all P<0.0001). Findings were similar in the Established Stoma Group. CONCLUSION: Stomas are associated with a substantial economic burden in the UK driven by hospital care. (Supplementary data tables can be obtained from the authors.).

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and corresponding geographical inequalities in England: interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been disruption to the detection and management of those with hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF) during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is likely to vary geographically and could have implications for future mortality and morbidity. We aimed to estimate the change in diagnosed prevalence, treatment and prescription indicators for AF and hypertension and assess corresponding geographical inequalities. METHODS: Using the Quality and Outcomes Framework (2016/17 to 2021/22) and the English Prescribing Datasets (2018 to 2022), we described age standardised prevalence, treatment and prescription item rates for hypertension and AF by geography and over time. Using an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis, we estimated the impact of the pandemic (from April 2020) on missed diagnoses and on the percentage change in medicines prescribed for these conditions. Finally, we described changes in treatment indicators against Public Health England 2029 cardiovascular risk targets. RESULTS: We observed 143,822 fewer (-143,822, 95%CI:-226,144, -61,500, p = 0.001) diagnoses of hypertension, 60,330 fewer (-60,330, 95%CI: -83,216, -37,444, p = 0.001) diagnoses of AF and 1.79% fewer (-1.79%, 95%CI: -2.37%, -1.22%), p < 0.0001) prescriptions for these conditions over the COVID-19 impact period. There was substantial variation across geography in England in terms of the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis, prescription, and treatment rates of hypertension and AF. 20% of Sub Integrated Care Boards account for approximately 62% of all missed diagnoses of hypertension. The percentage of individuals who had their hypertension controlled fell from 75.8% in 2019/20 to 64.1% in 2021/22 and the percentage of individuals with AF who were risk assessed fell from 97.2% to 90.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension and AF detection and management were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption varied considerably across diseases and geography. This highlights the utility of administrative and geographically granular datasets to inform targeted efforts to mitigate the indirect impacts of the pandemic through applied secondary prevention measures.

Real-world costs of obesity-related complications over eight years: a US retrospective cohort study in 28,500 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Obesity-related complications (ORCs) are associated with high costs for healthcare systems. We assessed the relationship between comorbidity burden, represented by both number and type of 14 specific ORCs, and total healthcare costs over time in people with obesity in the USA. METHODS: Adults (≥ 18 years old) identified from linked electronic medical records and administrative claims databases, with a body mass index measurement of 30-< 70 kg/m2 between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2012 (earliest measurement: index date), and with continuous enrolment for ≥ 1 year pre index (baseline year) and ≥ 8 years post index, were included. Individuals were grouped by type and number of ORCs during the pre-index baseline year. The primary outcome was annual total adjusted direct per-person healthcare costs. RESULTS: Of 28,583 included individuals, 12,686 had no ORCs, 7242 had one ORC, 4180 had two ORCs and 4475 had three or more ORCs in the baseline year. Annual adjusted direct healthcare costs increased with the number of ORCs and over the 8-year follow-up. Outpatient costs were the greatest contributor to baseline annual direct costs, irrespective of the number of ORCs. For specific ORCs, costs generally increased gradually over the follow-up; the largest percentage increases from year 1 to year 8 were observed for chronic kidney disease (+ 78.8%) and type 2 diabetes (+ 47.8%). CONCLUSIONS: In a US real-world setting, the number of ORCs appears to be a cost driver in people with obesity, from the time of initial obesity classification and for at least the following 8 years.

Association between weight loss and health care resource utilization in adults living with obesity: Evidence from a UK primary care database.

AIMS: We investigated the impact of intentional weight loss on health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs among people with obesity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective, observational cohort study used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database. Adults >18 years at index date [first recorded body mass index (BMI) of 30-50 kg/m2 between 2006 and 2015 with a further BMI record 4 years later] were assigned to an intentional weight loss cohort (-25% to -10% BMI change) or a stable weight cohort (-3% to +3%), based on their BMI change during a 4-year baseline period from index date. Evidence of intention to lose weight during the baseline period was required. Linked Hospital Episode Statistics datasets captured HCRU and costs over an 8-year follow-up period. Mixed effects models adjusted for demographics, total costs during baseline and baseline comorbidities were used. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar between cohorts with weight loss (n = 8676) and stable weight (n = 44 519). Over follow-up, the weight loss cohort experienced a significantly lower mean annual increase in total costs [2.1% (95% confidence interval: 1.3-2.8)] than the stable weight cohort [4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.0-4.6); p < .0001]. Weight loss was associated with a lower mean annual increase in multiple HCRU and cost components compared with maintaining a stable high weight. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that intentional weight loss of 10-25% is associated with lower HCRU and costs in the long term among individuals living with obesity, relative to stable weight.

An Insurance Value Modeling Approach That Captures the Wider Value of a Novel Antimicrobial to Health Systems, Patients, and the Population.

Background: Traditional health economic evaluations of antimicrobials currently underestimate their value to wider society. They can be supplemented by additional value elements including insurance value, which captures the value of an antimicrobial in preventing or mitigating impacts of adverse risk events. Despite being commonplace in other sectors, constituents of the impacts and approaches for estimating insurance value have not been investigated. Objectives: This study assessed the insurance value of a novel gram-negative antimicrobial from operational healthcare, wider population health, productivity, and informal care perspectives. Methods: A novel mixed-methods approach was used to model insurance value in the United Kingdom: (1) literature review and multidisciplinary expert workshops to identify risk events for 4 relevant scenarios: ward closures, unavoidable shortage of conventional antimicrobials, viral respiratory pandemics, and catastrophic antimicrobial resistance (AMR); (2) parameterizing mitigable costs and frequencies of risk events across perspectives and scenarios; (3) estimating insurance value through a Monte Carlo simulation model for extreme events and a dynamic disease transmission model. Results: The mean insurance value across all scenarios and perspectives over 10 years in the UK was £718 million, should AMR remain unchanged, where only £134 million related to operational healthcare costs. It would be 50%-70% higher if AMR steadily increased or if a more risk-averse view (1-in-10 year downside) of future events is taken. Discussion: The overall insurance value if AMR remains at current levels (a conservative projection), is over 5 times greater than insurance value from just the operational healthcare costs perspective, traditionally the sole perspective used in health budgeting. Insurance value was generally larger for nationwide or universal (catastrophic AMR, pandemic, and conventional antimicrobial shortages) rather than localized (ward closure) scenarios, across perspectives. Components of this insurance value match previously published estimates of operational costs and mortality impacts. Conclusions: Insurance value of novel antimicrobials can be systematically modeled and substantially augments their traditional health economic value in normal circumstances. These approaches are generalizable to similar health interventions and form a framework for health systems and governments to capture broader value in health technology assessments, improve healthcare access, and increase resilience by planning for adverse scenarios.

Obesity-related complications, healthcare resource use and weight loss strategies in six European countries: the RESOURCE survey.

BACKGROUND: Obesity-related complications (ORCs), such as type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease, contribute considerably to the clinical and economic impacts of obesity. To obtain a holistic overview of health and weight management attempts for people with obesity in Europe, we designed the cross-sectional RESOURCE survey to collect data on comorbidities, healthcare resource use (HCRU) and weight loss strategies from people with obesity in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. METHODS: Adults (≥18 years old) with self-reported body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 who reported interacting with primary or secondary healthcare services in the past 12 months, but had not been pregnant during this time, were recruited from an existing consumer research panel. All data were self-reported via an online survey (May-June 2021). Weight changes over the past year were calculated from participants' estimated weights. RESULTS: Of the 1850 participants in the survey, 26.3% reported that they had ≥3 ORCs from a set of 15 conditions of interest. The most frequently reported ORCs were hypertension (39.3% of participants), dyslipidaemia (22.8%) and T2D (17.5%). Participants in obesity class III (BMI 40 to <70 kg/m2) were more likely to report multiple ORCs than those in lower obesity classes. The presence of multiple ORCs was linked to various types of HCRU, including a significantly increased chance of reporting hospitalization in the past year. Most participants (78.6%) had attempted to lose weight in the past year, but of those who also reported estimated weight changes, 73.4% had not experienced clinically meaningful weight loss of ≥5%. CONCLUSIONS: ORCs are common in people with obesity, and are linked to increased HCRU. Together with the low reported success rate of weight loss attempts, this highlights an unmet need in Europe for enhanced weight management support for people with obesity.

Changes in life expectancy and house prices in London from 2002 to 2019: hyper-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of death registration and real estate data.

Background: London has outperformed smaller towns and rural areas in terms of life expectancy increase. Our aim was to investigate life expectancy change at very-small-area level, and its relationship with house prices and their change. Methods: We performed a hyper-resolution spatiotemporal analysis from 2002 to 2019 for 4835 London Lower-layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs). We used population and death counts in a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate age- and sex-specific death rates for each LSOA, converted to life expectancy at birth using life table methods. We used data from the Land Registry via the real estate website Rightmove (www.rightmove.co.uk), with information on property size, type and land tenure in a hierarchical model to estimate house prices at LSOA level. We used linear regressions to summarise how much life expectancy changed in relation to the combination of house prices in 2002 and their change from 2002 to 2019. We calculated the correlation between change in price and change in sociodemographic characteristics of the resident population of LSOAs and population turnover. Findings: In 134 (2.8%) of London's LSOAs for women and 32 (0.7%) for men, life expectancy may have declined from 2002 to 2019, with a posterior probability of a decline >80% in 41 (0.8%, women) and 14 (0.3%, men) LSOAs. The life expectancy increase in other LSOAs ranged from <2 years in 537 (11.1%) LSOAs for women and 214 (4.4%) for men to >10 years in 220 (4.6%) for women and 211 (4.4%) for men. The 2.5th-97.5th-percentile life expectancy difference across LSOAs increased from 11.1 (10.7-11.5) years in 2002 to 19.1 (18.4-19.7) years for women in 2019, and from 11.6 (11.3-12.0) years to 17.2 (16.7-17.8) years for men. In the 20% (men) and 30% (women) of LSOAs where house prices had been lowest in 2002, mainly in east and outer west London, life expectancy increased only in proportion to the rise in house prices. In contrast, in the 30% (men) and 60% (women) most expensive LSOAs in 2002, life expectancy increased solely independently of price change. Except for the 20% of LSOAs that had been most expensive in 2002, LSOAs with larger house price increases experienced larger growth in their population, especially among people of working ages (30-69 years), had a larger share of households who had not lived there in 2002, and improved their rankings in education, poverty and employment. Interpretation: Large gains in area life expectancy in London occurred either where house prices were already high, or in areas where house prices grew the most. In the latter group, the increases in life expectancy may be driven, in part, by changing population demographics. Funding: Wellcome Trust; UKRI (MRC); Imperial College London; National Institutes of Health Research.

Improving health outcomes of people with diabetes: target setting for the WHO Global Diabetes Compact.

The Global Diabetes Compact is a WHO-driven initiative uniting stakeholders around goals of reducing diabetes risk and ensuring that people with diabetes have equitable access to comprehensive, affordable care and prevention. In this report we describe the development and scientific basis for key health metrics, coverage, and treatment targets accompanying the Compact. We considered metrics across four domains: factors at a structural, system, or policy level; processes of care; behaviours and biomarkers such as glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c); and health events and outcomes; and three risk tiers (diagnosed diabetes, high risk, or whole population), and reviewed and prioritised them according to their health importance, modifiability, data availability, and global inequality. We reviewed the global distribution of each metric to set targets for future attainment. This process led to five core national metrics and target levels for UN member states: (1) of all people with diabetes, at least 80% have been clinically diagnosed; and, for people with diagnosed diabetes, (2) 80% have HbA1c concentrations below 8·0% (63·9 mmol/mol); (3) 80% have blood pressure lower than 140/90 mm Hg; (4) at least 60% of people 40 years or older are receiving therapy with statins; and (5) each person with type 1 diabetes has continuous access to insulin, blood glucose meters, and test strips. We also propose several complementary metrics that currently have limited global coverage, but warrant scale-up in population-based surveillance systems. These include estimation of cause-specific mortality, and incidence of end-stage kidney disease, lower-extremity amputations, and incidence of diabetes. Primary prevention of diabetes and integrated care to prevent long-term complications remain important areas for the development of new metrics and targets. These metrics and targets are intended to drive multisectoral action applied to individuals, health systems, policies, and national health-care access to achieve the goals of the Global Diabetes Compact. Although ambitious, their achievement can result in broad health benefits for people with diabetes.

Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken.

The Societal Value of Vaccines: Expert-Based Conceptual Framework and Methods Using COVID-19 Vaccines as a Case Study.

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

Eight-year trends in obesity-related complications and health care cost progression in a US population with obesity: A retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: Obesity-related complications (ORCs) impose a substantial health burden on affected individuals, and economic costs to health care systems. We examined ORCs and the progression of direct health care costs over 8 years, stratified by obesity class. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Adults with obesity were identified in linked US medical records and administrative claims databases. The index date was the first body mass index measurement of 30 to <70 kg/m2 between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2012; a ≥8-year continuous enrolment post-index was required for inclusion. Diagnosis codes for five specific ORCs and total health care costs were recorded in each year of follow-up. Costs adjusted for clinical and demographic factors were also estimated. RESULTS: Of 28 583 eligible individuals, 17 892 had class I obesity, 6550 had class II obesity and 4141 had class III obesity. From baseline to year 8, the presence of type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis doubled in all obesity classes, with even larger increases for chronic kidney disease and heart failure. Observed and adjusted total health care costs generally increased from the baseline year to year 8. The difference in costs between obesity classes increased over time: at year 1, individuals with class III obesity had 26.8% higher costs than those in class I, but at year 8, this difference was 40.7%. Outpatient costs constituted half of the total observed costs across obesity classes. CONCLUSIONS: ORC rates and health care costs increase over time, and are greater in higher obesity classes. This could be mitigated by approaches that limit obesity progression.

Variations in comorbidity burden in people with type 2 diabetes over disease duration: A population-based analysis of real world evidence.

Background: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasing, but increasing longevity among persons with diagnosed diabetes may be is associated with more extensive and diverse types of morbidity. The extent and breadth of morbidity and how this varies across sub-groups is unclear and could have important clinical and public health implications. We aimed to estimate comorbidity profiles in people with T2DM and variations across sub-groups and over time. Methods: We identified approximately 224,000 people with T2DM in the Discover-NOW dataset, a real-world primary care database from 2000 to 2020 covering 2.5 million people across North-West London, England, linked to hospital records. We generated a mixed prevalence and incidence study population through repeated annual cross sections, and included a broad set of 35 comorbidities covering traditional T2DM conditions, emerging T2DM conditions and other common conditions.We estimated annual age-standardised prevalence of comorbidities, over the course of the disease in people with T2DM and several sub-groups. Findings: Multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions) is common in people with T2DM and increasing, but the comorbidity profiles of people with T2DM vary substantially. Nearly 30% of T2DM patients had three or more comorbidities at diagnosis, increasing to 60% of patients ten years later. Two of the five commonest comorbidities at diagnosis were traditional T2DM conditions (hypertension (37%) and ischaemic heart disease (10%)) the other three were not (depression (15%), back pain (25%) and osteoarthritis (11%)). The prevalence of each increased during the course of the disease, with more than one in three patients having back pain and one in four having depression ten years post diagnosis.People with five or more comorbidities at diagnosis had higher prevalence of each of the 35 comorbidities. Hypertension (73%) was the commonest comorbidity at diagnosis in this group; followed by back pain (69%), depression (67%), asthma (45%) and osteoarthritis (36%). People with obesity at diagnosis had substantially different comorbidity profiles to those without, and the five commonest comorbidities were 50% more common in this group. Interpretation: Preventative and clinical interventions alongside care pathways for people with T2DM should transition to reflect the diverse set of causes driving persistent morbidity. This would benefit both patients and healthcare systems alike. Funding: The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia and disability. METHODS: Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau-age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall-age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). FINDINGS: The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. INTERPRETATION: After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.

The association between sedentary behaviour, physical activity and type 2 diabetes markers: A systematic review of mixed analytic approaches.

The negative effect of sedentary behaviour on type 2 diabetes markers is established, but the interaction with measures of physical activity is still largely unknown. Previous studies have analysed associations with single-activity models, which ignore the interaction with other behaviours. By including results from various analytical approaches, this review critically summarises the effects of sedentary behaviour on diabetes markers and the benefits of substitutions and compositions of physical activity. Ovid Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched. Studies were selected if sedentary behaviour and physical activity were measured by accelerometer in the general population, and if associations were reported with glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, insulin sensitivity, HbA1c, diabetes incidence, CRP and IL-6. Forty-five studies were included in the review. Conclusive detrimental associations with sedentary behaviour were determined for 2-h insulin (6/12 studies found associations), fasting insulin (15/19 studies), insulin sensitivity (4/6 studies), diabetes (3/4 studies) and IL-6 (2/3 studies). Reallocating sedentary behaviour to light or moderate-to-vigorous activity has a beneficial effect for 2-h glucose (1/1 studies), fasting insulin (3/3 studies), HOMA-IR (1/1 studies) and insulin sensitivity (1/1 studies). Compositional measures of sedentary behaviour were found to affect 2-h glucose (1/1 studies), fasting insulin (2/3 studies), 2-h insulin (1/1 studies), HOMA-IR (2/2 studies) and CRP (1/1 studies). Different analytical methods produced conflicting results for fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, 2-h insulin, insulin sensitivity, HOMA-IR, diabetes, hbA1c, CRP and IL-6. Studies analysing data by quartiles report independent associations between sedentary behaviour and fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and diabetes only for high duration of sedentary time (7-9 hours/day). However, this review could not provide sufficient evidence for a time-specific cut-off of sedentary behaviour for diabetes biomarkers. While substituting sedentary behaviour with moderate-to-vigorous activity brings greater improvements for health, light activity also benefits metabolic health. Future research should elucidate the effects of substituting and combining different activity durations and modalities.

Dietary quality of school meals and packed lunches: a national study of primary and secondary schoolchildren in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: School lunches represent a key opportunity to improve diets and health of schoolchildren. No recent nationally representative studies have examined the nutritional differences between school meals and packed lunches in the UK. This study aimed to characterise and compare the nutritional quality of school meals and packed lunches among primary and secondary school-age children. DESIGN: A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2017). SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 3001 children (aged 4-16 years) who completed a 3/4-d food diary which recorded meal type (school meal/packed lunch). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations of meeting food and nutrient recommendations by meal type. Analyses were stratified by academic key stages (KS). RESULTS: KS-1 (4-7 years) and 2 (8-11 years) children consuming school meals were more likely to meet minimum recommendations for vegetables, protein-rich foods and fibre, and not exceed maximum recommendations for salt, savoury and sweet snacks compared with pupils consuming packed lunches. However, in KS-3 (12-14 years) and 4 (14-16 years), these effects were reduced. As children aged, the median weight of fruits, vegetables, protein-rich foods and dairy products consumed typically decreased for both school meals and packed lunches, and generally an increasing proportion of school meals contained sweet and savoury snacks. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest school meals are nutritionally superior to packed lunches but are not yet optimal. Quality declined at higher KS. Actions to improve lunches of primary and secondary schoolchildren across the UK are needed, with attention to KS-3 and 4 in secondary schools.